The Russian MFA accused today the US of interfering in the domestic affairs of the Republic of Moldova, "as in Venezuela” and ”Syria" - the US Ambassador was accused of that today, though without a clear indication of the cause, except for a vague explanation of the behavior it. What is relevant is that this declaration of "MID" actually came after Putin first declared interest in the Moldovan elections.
1. Undoubtedly this statement confirms Russia's increased interest for Moldova. It would create a politically loyal Russian base on the South Western flank of Ukraine and, as Kremlin might hope, a precedent in elections in Moldova and Ukraine. This is unlikely, however, it would ensure at least a ”bridgehead” to distract Ukraine forces from Donbass.
The fact that the Russian went as far as to use such an exaggeration as the comparison of Moldovan relatively calm security atmosphere, despite heated politics, with Syria is a clear example that their interest is quite high, even to the point of using visible exaggeration.
2. I would treat the ”warning” to US Ambassador in Moldova, D. Hogan, from two perspectives:
a. as a currently expanding practice of "finger-pointing" - though Russia would not dare to act against him openly, from the point of view of the ambassador's security, the Russians may create inconveniences or small risks to prove their point. Minor visible surveillance around the house, visits etc would be enough. In this case the Russians would not need anything spectacular or dangerous.
b. Let's not forget that Russia has already requested to punish diplomats from Eastern Europe, some successfully (I confirm) and attempted to extended this practice over the US, when they asked to question the former Ambassador to Moscow, M. McFall. This in not related to any particular US administration, it's related to the Russian practice of intimidation. The reaction of the Department of State, unlike their peers from the Republic of Moldova, is important, because the Russian "MID" can interpret the lack of a response as weakness. This can mean that the State can have an internal (non-public) discussion in Moscow - however, if the State Department does not make it clear that its diplomats are off the table, the Russian interpretation will be as I just suggested (weakness).
3. Regarding the timing of the declaration during the upcoming elections - incidentally or not, the Russian MID plays precisely by the notes of their "non" partners from the Moldovan Democratic Party, who used "Russia is coming" scaremongering in its relation with Washington DC, asking for US support. That is despite the fact that they are in a a power-sharing relationship with Putin's Socialists in Moldova, lead by President of Moldova. I. Dodon. Of course the Democrats are claiming to thus control Dodon. I would assume that the PD will immediately use this real problem of much earlier announced Russian interference in elections in its external efforts to reiterate to the US that they will continue to control Dodon after the elections as well.
However, the cumulative body of their actions proves otherwise. The problem is that they have not controlled him so far, but have rather worked with him in an undeclared power sharing, as many player in Moldova have repeatedly stated. Democrats, thus, previously received Kremlin's approval to take over MoldovaGaz, the Moldova's gas monopoly controlled by Gazprom, refused to ask the withdrawal of Russian "peacekeepers" in the Moldovan UN resolution on the withdrawal of Russian troops, thus negating its purpose, and gave Russian businesses in the separatist Transnistrian region of Moldova "neutral" (non-Moldovan looking) car registration registration plates that would allow Russians businesses to export on Moldovan "quotas"... So "MID" Press Communique appears is very timely.
Some additional facts about the Russian Laundromat via Moldova and the Democratic Party:
The reputable investigative journalists from RISE Moldova have clearly indicated that the leadership of the Democratic Party played a role in the Russian Laundromat, laundering dirty Russian money via Moldovan judicial and banking system they control. After EU backlash against the Moldovan Democrats, perhaps only a few remaining partners continue to place hope in Moldovan Democrats, who pump money into US, as the now exiled Ukrainian President Yanukovich did via Manafort.
The most likely scenario in Moldova is that the Democrats would create a new "non" coalition with Pro Putin political proxies in Moldova led by the President Dodon. This doesn't mean limiting Dododn - simply because Russia is closer and is able to pump the necessary funds into Moldova without any supervision or transparency, unlike US. The "Democrats" would therefore attempt to:
- justify their coalition with the Socialists by blaming the anti-corruption pro-EU and pro-US opposition, whose victory in Municipal elections they cancelled via subordinated judiciary. The blame will be placed for the unwillingness of the opposition to form an anti-Dodon (read anti-Putin) coalition in Moldova. The opposition cannot afford itself such a coalition, as it would annihilate their credibility - any coalition with the known corrupt Democrats, laundering Russian money, will be punished by the opposition voters severely. Hence such a refusal to deal with the corrupt Democratic Party (DP) would be used by the DP leadership to blame the opposition for "pushing" them towards Putin's proxies.
- convince their partners in US, as EU already is already extremely skeptical about them, of their capacity and the need to control the pro-Putin's Socialists (instead of using DP enormous media influence to undermine the Socialists and provoke early elections).
The Russian danger in the Republic of Moldova is a real one. And the political game is more complicated than what US is used to at home, though it may have seen various scenarios abroad. It is unknown if the US diplomats have seen and reported about such a "good cop - bad cop" coalition playing both sides and benefiting from it, sometimes financially or politically. Yet the parts of this game, motivated by the internal struggle for power via clashing Russia and US for this purpose, or in some cases due to the lack of experience of other players and other reasons, must be recognized for what it is.
http://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/-/asset_publisher/cKNonkJE02Bw/content/id/3513260?fbclid=IwAR2yzUdIMcaEm0mO-oc-YVvWkUDVUaaWSAafLR5GEqruvUmj9UWNiwytcSo
(Note - references for most of the claims might be added later)
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