By
Vlad Lupan
New
York, April 9, 2019
Today's
press conference of the Socialist Party of the Republic of Moldova, informally
led by the Moldovan President, Igor Dodon,[i] supports the suspicion that
his undeclared and denied plan to place the country under Russian control exists
and is still in motion.[ii]
President
Dodon returned from another trip to Moscow, after Dmitri Kiseliov, from Russia
Today (RT) channel, closely affiliated with the Kremlin’s Presidential
administration and on sanctions lists by the West, issued stark warnings[iii]
to the Moldovan president to avoid another involvement with the Moldovan Democratic
Party leadership and essentially seek a regime change, as Vlad Socor of
Jamestown Foundation suggests.[iv]
Kremlin dislikes the Democrats, as they played a pro-Western card for a while,
even expelling Russian diplomats[v],
despite being in a de-facto power sharing with the Socialists.[vi]
The Democratic leadership was reported to be involved in the Russian Laundromat
scheme[vii]
and was also criticized by the European Parliament for state capture.[viii]
The
Socialist Party press conference today was organized after RT criticism, post-negotiations
with the Democrats and primarily to respond to the invitation of the self-declared
pro-Western ACUM (meaning “Now”) block, to oust the Democratic Party in power
until recently.[ix]
ACUM
previously rejected the pro-Russian Socialist Party invitation to form a joint
Government to oust Democrats. Such a Government would have been detrimental to ACUM’s
image of anti-corruption and pro-Western party.[x]
The block launched a counter-invitation to the Socialists to vote for a minority,
ACUM headed, Government, for the same purpose. The Socialist part refused the
coalition in today’s press conference and seemingly forwarded a number of
conditions for any support to a future government in the Republic of Moldova.
Apparently,
as a part of the post electoral positioning in Moldova, ACUM may have lured the
Socialists where Dodon’s party openly requested Russian to become the
"inter-ethnic" language of the Republic of Moldova, making it the
only overall language in a predominantly Romanian speaking Republic of Moldova,
where over 80% of the population responds that it speaks Moldovan/Romanian language[xi]
(Romanian[xii] is a
part of the Romance/Latin language group, where the so-called Moldovan is in
fact the same language, as linguists and Encyclopedia Britannica also
recognizes[xiii]).
The position of the Socialist
Party voiced today, seemingly focused on several points and requests, foreign
and linguistic policy related, reflecting previous concerns about Moscow’s
goals:
1.
To ensure the Socialists
receive the position of the Speaker of the Parliament, Ministers of Foreign
Affairs and that of Defense. They also requested return of the Security and Information
Service of Moldova (Intelligence Services), currently under Parliamentary
oversight, back under the control of the President[xiv],
who is their informal leader.
2.
The Socialists are again
requesting to refrain from entry into European Union and NATO.
3.
Russian language to
have the inter-ethnic tongue statute.
4.
Cancellation of the law restricting the
re-broadcasting of certain Russian televisions in Moldova.[xv]
Their first request would
put the Russian affiliated Socialists in complete control of both the
Presidency and Parliament, Foreign affairs and Defense, as well as the intelligence
community, de facto controlling the government completely.
Their objection
against NATO and EU, making no distinction among the two, is in line with previous
Russian opposition, for which Moldovan goods were embargoed by Moscow.[xvi]
This proves that the Russian desire to recover its influence on the territory
of the former USSR continues via their political proxy.[xvii]
The request for
Russian language to become a tongue of inter-ethnic communication needs to
consider that, in fact, the Russian language, by the law of 1989 on functioning
of languages in the Republic of Moldova already has such a statute.[xviii]
The Socialists, in fact, requested an upgrade to the current statute. After USSR
years of linguistic domination by Russia,
despite the declared equality of languages, and the consequent independence
movement based on the preservation and promotion of language, such a law would
mean a return to the USSR status quo and firm re-arrangement of the Latin speaking
Republic of Moldova into the “Russian World” a construct for Kremlin’s
domination.[xix]
The fourth point on
Socialists’ agenda was reopening of the Russian propaganda channels in the Republic of Moldova.
This may also indicate that the warning signals from Moscow meant that they
should be prepared for early elections.
The requests advanced by the Moldovan Socialists,
after the return of President Dodon from Moscow, confirm the following
important developments:
i.
The
so-called anti “oligarchic”[xx]
stance of the Socialists has been visibly diminished by today’s refusal to oust
the Democrats, thus strengthening the perception of being under Democrats leadership
control.
ii.
The
ACUM block, despite seemingly setting a trap to make such a stance transparent,
might create tensions within its own pro-Western and anti-corruption electorate,
due to the appeal to unite their forces with pro-Russian Socialists, involved
in previous financial irregularities[xxi]
as well.[xxii]
iii.
That
President Dodon’s previous plan to place the Republic of Moldova, via foreign, security
policy, as well as Russian linguistic dependency of the “Russian World” firmly into Kremlin’s sphere of
influence was reiterated today by other means and was real.
The
unchecked Socialist government would mean the return of a “Transnistrization” plan
for Republic of Moldova. It would re-attempt to place the country under Russian
control, via further disingenuous con-federalization with Kremlin controlled “separatist”
proxies in the East of Moldova, and possible fragmentation to the North and
South. Moscow’s direct political control via internal political proxies, such
as Socialists and several other forces, would:
A. create tensions with neighboring
countries, as it happened during the rule of the Party of Communists, whose
members are now in Mr. Dodon’s party,
B. place Russian military in
the “separatist” Transnistrian region in a permanent legal presence mode,
providing a better, more operational position in the Black Sea vicinity,
C. allow Russian military more
freedom to monitor or scout USA military installation at Deveselu Base and
Costanta ports,
D. allow Russian business
via Moldovan laws on citizenship via investment to circumvent US and EU sanctions,
presenting themselves as Moldovan,
E. create a more permanent point
of pressure and distraction for Ukraine, during a warm conflict in the East, in
its South-West, despite initial failed attempts to create another Popular Bessarabian
Republic in the South. It would lock and pull some of the military resources
away from Donbass.
F. Ukraine’s and Moldova’s
voters seem to have voted in various forms for a perceived anti-corruption and democratization
of their societies. It is unclear if anti-corruption electoral promises in both
countries are part of the modern trend or an actual reality. However, the
failure of such promises would suppress hopes for a positive outcome for a number
of citizens, generating another increase in migration where elderly, socially
oriented voter base, might be closer to Russia and less knowledgeable about or
inclined towards change.
It
is clear that Moldovan and Ukrainian elections show the willingness, supported
by Kremlin’s actions, to invest in local politics, be it in Moldova’s Dodon or in
the speculated support for Ukraine’s Kolomoiski and, thus, allegedly Zelensky.[xxiii]
One thing is certain, Moscow is not afraid of direct financial support and investments into other
countries politics, while the West seems to urge, yet not invest properly in anti-corruption
and democratization efforts that people in the Eastern Europe, especially young
ones, seem to vote for.
