Friday, April 27, 2018

North Korean Precedent

H. Kazianis at FoxNews suggests President Trump deserves a Nobel Prise for a real #NorthKorea de-escalation, unlike Obama.

Undoubtedly President Trump did manage to de-escalate. Yet it is harmful to present US president's actions as a contest over Nobel or for partizan reasons. Conflict resolution is not a partizan contest. The final goals are not there & unfortunately:

1. #KoreanPeninsula remains divided.

2. A dictator maintains his grip on power and realities of Iran show that it's hard to believe countries' nuclear development will be restraint, when the essence of tyrants' power is threatened. This may be a reprieve, let's see what's next.

3. It is also worying that Kim gets a possible Peace Treaty: 
- peace treaties are usually signed between recognized states. Thus, #SouthKorea, depending on what will be negotiated, will face a North Korea that'll attempt to achieve a legal recognition of its statue as a separate state recognized by "all" Koreans as such. That was previously successfully avoided by South Korea, in much earlier negotiations. Hence this did not create a negative precedent in international relations & conflict resolution on recognition of division of states, when such division is abnormal, but happened for strategic and to a lesser extent ideological reasons (like Germany after WWII). 
- A Peace Treaty now can create that danger. Much caution is necessary on this!

Speaking from a post-Soviet perspective, when a communust USSR understandood well power pressures and zero-sum games, the POTUS applied the correct pressure strategy over North Korea, well understood by its counterpart (make no mistake about that) - however, for now the results are fewer/lesser than what was actually possible and there are worrysome signals for many states, even afar from Asia, as I've mentioned above.

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