Monday, February 25, 2019

Main scenarios after Moldova elections

Moldova elections - 99.35% polling stations reports counted, but results are clear, if Agora's math is correct:
PSRM 18+17=35
PD 13+17=30
ACUM 14+12=26
Sor 5+2=7
Independent 3

Scenario 1 - PD+Sor+Independents would again "buy" missing MPs from other parties. The quantity is high & therefore such an action seems problematic for now.

Scenario 2a & 2b (disingenious PD negotiations with ACUM that would probably reject such an offer, so that PD can justify an alliance with PSRM):
2a return to govern with PSRM covertly,
2b return to govern with PSRM this time openly,

EDIT: 2c - totally forgot the third option, Dodon may "borrow" sone MPs to Dems, but deny it in public.

In the meantime he already suggested early elections (it may be his tactical positioning ahead of negotiations)

Scenario 3 would be early elections, which cannot be ruled out.

Democrats+Sor are missing at least 14-17 MPs (17 if we consider that Independents are not related to DP). In 2009 parties resisted the attempts by the Communists (with DP's Plahotniuc & Dodon with the communist party) to buy one MP. That resistance provoked early elections. The 2009 change was in different conditions, however. Now in 2019 PSRM probably already calculated if it is worth going to new elections or not, as the results of early elections may not necessarily change too much, under current circumstances, despite 2009 precedent. Thus scenarios 2a&b seem to regain ground, as a group of 11 experts noted in a 2018-2019 overview. However nothing is yet written in stone. PSRM may decide a war by attrition and go into early elections. If they don't join forces with PD the probability of early elections may raise significantly. Let's see which scenario happens in 2019.

For other elements of these elections please see Stanislav Secrieru and Dionis Cenusa competentcpompet on their Facebook accounts.

By V.Lupan
February 25, 2019,
New York, USA.

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